Modelling the financial contribution of soccer players to their clubs

Abstract

This paper presents a framework for evaluating the financial consequences of player transfers as seen from a club’s perspective. To this end, an objective player rating model is designed based on players’ contribution towards creating a positive goals differential for their team. A regression model is then applied to predict match outcomes as a function of the players involved in a match. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict the final league standings and the financial gains obtained as a function of sporting success. The framework isillustrated on player transfers from the 2014-2015 English Premier League season. Keywords: association, football, rating, simulation, regression