Continuous handling of uncertainty in food chains : using the house of risk model in ecosystems

Abstract

The house of risk model represents an approach to mitigate risk through systematically analysing data risk agents based on empirical findings through prioritizing them. Food production is associated with uncertainty both within the production system as well as in environment. Given the state of current technology, including its rapid development impacting on connectivity in supply chains, the house of risk model is considered through this conceptual study applying an ecosystems approach on how to mitigate risk in food chains in their many-faceted environmental setting. Ecosystems thinking is rooted in a normative quest to secure sustainability. It also is at the operations level a complex system. It is pointed out that an ecosystems approach encompasses mixed methods, including both deterministic and complex systems. The nature of this complementarity is discussed. The study provides a list of four issues regarding using the house of risk model within an ecosystem: (1) ethical, (2) development, (3) operations and (4) discourse. Keywords: ecosystems, house of risk, uncertainty, complex systems, supply chain management, food chains.