The competitive evolution of European top football – signs of danger

Abstract

This paper presents a relatively comprehensive study of how Uncertainty of Outcome has developed over time in major European football leagues. The findings are clear; excitement in football is degrading, closing up on levels that many should find unacceptable. The paper also discusses and proposes some simple means for reversing this development. Keywords: uncertainty of outcome, regression analysis, time series analysis, ARIMA modelling, competitive balance, football (soccer)