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dc.contributor.authorHaugen, Kjetil K.
dc.contributor.authorArntzen, Halvard
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-16T11:06:44Z
dc.date.available2024-04-16T11:06:44Z
dc.date.created2022-12-30T12:16:02Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.identifier.citationMathematics for applications. 2022, 11 (2), 119-131.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1805-3610
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/3126777
dc.description.abstractBased on an assumption of an existing scoring probability difference between two teams engaged in a football match, the conditional probability distribution given the number of goals in the match for the low quality team beating the high quality team, is derived. Furthermore, similar distributions for the high quality team beating the low quality team as well as a draw are also derived. Based on a Poisson distribution of goals, we discuss a potential for optimizing expected uncertainty of outcome (UO) by adjusting intra-match rules or league rules for team sports. The main variables in this regard are (i) the typical number of goals scored, and (ii) the evenness of competing teams. We identify a curve defining the optimal expected number of goals as a function of team quality difference.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.13164/ma.2022.9
dc.titleThe trade-off between goals and uncertainty of outcome in professional team sportsen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.source.pagenumber119-131en_US
dc.source.volume11en_US
dc.source.journalMathematics for applicationsen_US
dc.source.issue2en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.13164/ma.2022.9
dc.identifier.cristin2098165
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1


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